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Great article! A nuanced question—how frequently do defenses match personnel groupings? The underlying question is whether a TE covered by a LB is a better “pass advantage” than a WR covered by a nickel. This would be impacted by zone/man rules as well.

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It depends on the defense, but it also depends on the TE! My next piece touches on this.

Generally, if the 2nd TE is an Andrews or Kelce, they'll never put a linebacker on them, they'll stay in nickel. If it's a Ben Sims or Marcedes Lewis, they'll get into base.

The in-between guys are where this gets interesting, if you can get them into base, that 2nd TE becomes the more valuable option with the LB matchup bc it limits what they can do in coverage. The general rule of modern College/NFL defense though is that they're going to stay in nickel until they absolutely can't anymore. It usually has to be forced.

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