The Tyler Warren Effect

It's way too early to say anything declarative, but Tyler Warren has already given the Colts a whole new element

Justin Casterline-Getty Images

Talk about an entrance! The Indianapolis Colts’ offense is the talk of the league after week 2, like we all predicted. Now remember, this time a year ago it was the SAINTS, so things will even out, but it’s not hard to find reason to think the Colts can remain a scrappy unit despite limitations at QB. Regardless of all that, it makes no difference to me. The thing that has caught *my* eye, of course, is the immediate translation of their possible star rookie Tight End. As I said in the header, you can’t say anything declarative. Tyler Warren could still prove to be another first-round TE bust in 2 years, such is the nature of this league, especially as it pertains to a player that is clearly nowhere near fully developed.

With that almost legal-ese disclaimer out of the way, let’s get to the football element. Tyler Warren picked up right where he left off after a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame ended a historic final season of college football. I will admit that, as hard as I drove the bus for Tyler Warren as a prospect, I did have some reservations. The arm length measurement scared me, not enough to really change my view of him, but certainly to temper my immediate-term expectations. Adjusting to blocking in the NFL for a college TE is a massive transition. Remember, TEs are physically disadvantaged relative to their competition (DEs), so you’re not just making a big jump in the competition that you have to move off the line of scrimmage, but doing so at an existing disadvantage. Warren is massive and strong, which I thought would eventually carry him to seriousness in-line at the NFL level, but I grew concerned he would never reach the blocking ceiling set by his violent mindset and size. I certainly thought it would be an adjustment that would prevent him from playing an every-down role until either late in his rookie year or into year 2.

We saw it in the preseason. He may not be able to lift and drive defenders the way a guy like George Kittle or Tucker Kraft does, despite possessing every bit of the power. Subsequently, I thought it would be a challenge to get him into more than a rotational 12 personnel role early as a move blocker and PA element who comes off the field on most standard down 11 personnel snaps.

The Early Returns

While the Colts are using a touch more 12 and 13 personnel to accommodate Warren and his transition, it’s still an 11 personnel first offense. Personally, I think they should ratchet the 12 up, but regardless, it’s obvious that the Colts view Tyler Warren as an instant focal point. It’s not like they lack options. Josh Downs is a very good slot receiver, and a 3-wide grouping with him, Michael Pittman, and Alec Pierce can give them the receiving juice they need, even if the TE is just a blocker like Mo-Alie Cox. Through 2 weeks, Tyler Warren is the Colts’ leading receiver. While that won’t hold, the emphasis is clear. Anybody can, however, force a guy into usage and targets. The question that should always follow is: Is it a good idea overall for their offense? Or is the early production a Jonnu Smith, Juwan Johnson-esque recession indicator? A reception recession, if you will.

Tyler Warren’s Impact

Shane Steichen isn’t asking Tyler Warren to be a WR. Much of his role in the passing game has been as a run-action element. While these are “schemed up” (or whatever that means) targets, they are the core of what makes the TE position useful in an offense. Remember, as always, TEs are not the only people who block on the line (OL) and not the only people who catch the ball (WRs). They are the only people who block on the line who also detach into the route distribution. So in that sense, it’s not mere gadgetry. For an offense whose QB is Daniel Jones, with the RB as their best player, it’s a great way to build the unit. What Warren gives them, even if he never takes another step in his development, is an explosive 260-pound athlete who has finally brought the action game of this run-first offense to life, which puts a lot together for them. He is also already at minimum a passable in-line blocker. As you can see here, with two 260-pound TEs in the formation, Denver gets bodies in the box, which creates a void behind the LBs for Warren to pop into on this deep over, dressed up with a creative A-gap insert. Even if they want to shelter him from too much exposure in-line for now, his size makes him an element you can’t match with a nickel.

His YAC talent, an immediate point of translation, is the thing that makes a TE go from a useful run game constraint on PA/movement to a serious weapon in that department. As long as the run game remains viable, these openings won’t be going anywhere. The Colts’ big problem, besides just Anthony Richardson, has been that they’re an 11 personnel offense without much of a dropback pass game. That’s still kind of true because Daniel Jones can’t carry this offense from the pocket, but they had also lacked a TE who could bridge the run and pass in this kind of way. Without either of those elements, it’s hard to build an offense. A dynamic 2-way TE is a serve-breaker in the run game, not just because he can block in it, but because, as that blocker, he’s the most useful counterpunch in the action game too.

The Tea Leaves

There’s no conversation about his sustainability without talking about the blocking. Warren dominated in a true in-line role against Denver after being managed mostly to avoid it in week 1. As mentioned earlier, the big and only concern is his arm length, which is amazingly bad at 31 3/4”.

Now, this is not a death sentence; Charlie Woerner and Brenton Strange (both 31 1/8”) are very capable in-line blockers with similar measurements, but it is something to work around in the development of technique. You can see on this base block that he uses a long-arm stab to prop the defender out. One arm is longer than two, and with Warren’s lower-half anchor is a great way for him to control defenders on this type of block. The Colts used more 11 personnel in week 2 because they were more comfortable asking this. I think, however, that they were hunting a matchup. Nik Bonitto, their recently paid EDGE, is only 6’3, 240, and has short arms himself. He is a pure speed guy and not equipped to go to war head-to-head with big blockers. As everyone does, the Broncos matched 11 personnel with nickel.

3-4 Base (top) vs Nickel

Outside of some sub fronts, nickel packages tend to have 4 bodies on the DL regardless of base system. This is for pass-rush purposes.

“Penny” front, Match Quarters

If you want to get into a base 3-4 spacing, you need to take an ILB off (instead of taking the SAM LB off for the nickel) in a “Penny” front, diagrammed above by

Cody Alexander

, which leaves you compromised at the second level and vulnerable to gap scheme runs like counter. As a result, most nickel fronts are 4 across. This puts Nik Bonitto in a true DE role, and this was a nice opportunity for Indianapolis to use Warren as a true in-line guy to maximize pass-catching on the field.

He bullied Bonitto all afternoon with his extra 20 pounds, and the Broncos had issues stopping the run out of nickel as a result. If you want to stop the run out of nickel, and play light boxes, you’re gonna need people at DE that can win a fight, and the Colts exploited this.

He had very few tough blocks on guys that *weren’t* Bonitto, but here on Jonathon Cooper, who is 6’3, 260, and much stronger than Bonitto, you see the length issues a little bit. Now, Cooper has short arms too (32 1/8”), but Warren isn’t able to knock him off the ball like he is with Bonitto, and the stab works better on someone trying to get upfield than a guy willing to try to shed you. You can see here that Warren has trouble getting his hands placed and Cooper wins control. Despite the destruction of Bonitto, I’m not ready to call Warren a real in-line blocker yet, which will lead to more sheltering against tougher OLBs and 4-down teams with big DEs as their edge defenders.

While Warren’s current usage as a pass-catcher is totally viable for his whole career if he becomes a legit in-line blocker, the best of the best TEs can go out and get open on real routes against both man and zone and contribute to the dropback game. Warren has a lot of rawness as a route-runner, especially with managing contact and working to leverage. This play on DPOY CB Patrick Surtain shows us something different. It’s a glimpse of the all-around receiving weapon he *may* one day become. Guys like Gronk and Gonzalez couldn’t be covered by anybody. Sure, a great corner could match them athletically, but they used their size to get them out of phase and separate, as well as going over them to grab a rebound if they couldn’t. The way Warren, aligned at the X, stems to leverage, leans into Surtain with the forearm to (legally) get him off balance before his break, and goes up for the ball, is special. If this is the Ghost of Tyler Warren Future, then his only true ceiling may be the one keeping the rain off of the other bronze heads in Canton, Ohio.